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Today's news: appreciation of more than 1%, back to the era of 6
40 & mdash& mdash; On the first trading day of 2021, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar made a strong debut
Yesterday, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar soared by more than 800 points during the day, reaching an intraday high of 6
4579; The offshore RMB rose more than 500 points against the US dollar, reaching an intraday high of 6
4417
As of 16:30, the onshore and offshore RMB against the US dollar were reported at 6
4612 and 6
4437 respectively, both reaching a new high since June 2018

On December 31, 2020, the foreign exchange trading center adjusted the basket currency weight of CFETS RMB exchange rate index and reduced the weight of US dollar for the third time
Industry insiders believe that the adjustment will further expand the flexibility of RMB bilateral exchange rate
Taking into account the scheduled completion of the China EU investment agreement negotiations and the continued contraction of US trade, the dollar weight of the RMB index may continue to decline in the future

The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar stood at 6
50
The RMB exchange rate rose sharply yesterday to kick off the new year
Among them, the onshore RMB broke the 6
50 mark against the US dollar for the first time in two and a half years; The offshore RMB recovered the 6
45 mark against the US dollar, continuously setting a new high since June 2018

This wave of RMB rise, which began in June 2020, will continue in 2021
Industry insiders believe that the positive resonance of economic recovery, export recovery, capital inflow and the weakening of the US dollar will continue to promote the strength of the RMB
In 2021, the RMB exchange rate may show a trend of strengthening first and then stabilizing

The logic of appreciation remains largely unchanged& ldquo; The current round of RMB exchange rate appreciation driven by factors such as the first recovery of the domestic economy is expected to continue until the first half of 2021& rdquo; Societe Generale research macro team believes that in the second half of 2021, it is necessary to pay attention to the change of US dollar index and the decline rate of social finance, and the RMB may change from appreciation trend to shock trend

Factors such as seasonal foreign exchange settlement and the decline of the US dollar are expected to become new driving points
Zhang Jing, a researcher at CITIC * research department, said that the continued downward pressure on the US dollar may become the driving force driving the continued appreciation breakthrough of the RMB exchange rate
It is suggested that the demand for short-term foreign exchange purchase should grasp the window of the first quarter

Zhang Jing believes that in the medium and long term, the central exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar may continue to rise, but the space is relatively limited and the fluctuation will remain high

RMB bilateral exchange rate flexibility may increase
On December 31, 2020, the foreign exchange trading center announced that the weight of CFETS RMB exchange rate index basket currencies will be adjusted from January 1, 2021
The US dollar currency weight was lowered to 0
1879, and the weights of euro, Hong Kong dollar, British pound and Australian dollar were increased

This is the third time that the dollar weight of the index has been lowered
Industry insiders believe that reducing the US dollar weight in the CFETS currency basket is a reasonable adjustment to the trade pattern and structural changes

　　“ At present, the overall scale of US trade shrinks and the weight of trade volume decreases; The focus of Global trade has shifted, and the trade scale between ASEAN, Europe and China has begun to exceed that between China and the United States& rdquo; Lian Ping, President of Zhixin Investment Research Institute, said that if U
S
trade continues to shrink, the dollar weight in the CFETS currency basket will continue to decline

In terms of impact effect, since CFETS index is one of the important reference factors set for the central parity of RMB, this adjustment will enhance the impact of the fluctuation of US dollar index on the central parity of RMB

According to Zhang Jing's analysis, the decline in the weight of the US dollar reflects, to some extent, the reduced impact of the change of the RMB relative to the US dollar on the CFETS index
However, due to the increase in the weight of the euro and sterling, the impact of the fluctuation of the US dollar index on the central parity of the RMB may increase

The flexibility of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is also expected to expand
Societe Generale macro research team said that from a long-term perspective, for bilateral exchange rates, this adjustment means that the RMB effective exchange rate operates smoothly & ldquo; Policy anchor & rdquo; Under the, the RMB bilateral exchange rate flexibility is expected to expand in the appreciation band in 2021