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Today's news: the seven major securities companies studied and judged the market in January: the Shanghai index broke through 3500, which is likely to heat up the growth direction of new energy
On the last trading day before New Year's day, the main indexes rose sharply, and a shares came to a successful end in 2020
Tomorrow is the first trading day in 2021
What opportunities will the A-share market bring to investors?
In the view of securities companies, there is still room for upward movement in the A-share market in January, which is likely to break through 3500 points, and the spring market is already on the way
In terms of configuration, in addition to the main line along the cycle, securities companies pay more attention to the growth direction of science and technology and new energy
The Shanghai index is likely to break through 3500 points
Qin Peijing team of CITIC Securities strategy believes that there is still upward space in the A-share market in January
The overall external environment in the beginning of the year is conducive to a shares; Domestic fundamentals continued to improve in the first quarter, and the year-on-year growth of performance was flexible; The internal and external macro liquidity is still loose, and the liquidity of A-share market is more abundant; Some speculative conglomerates will collapse, and the front-line core assets will continue to benefit from new fund development and foreign capital inflows
Chen Xianshun team of Guotai Junan strategy believes that the transaction recovery is still the core main line of the market, and the logic behind it is that the maintenance of loose liquidity and overseas inventory replenishment in the first quarter of 2021 will continue to drive the meso price
Before the Spring Festival, the market has sufficient action force, and it is possible to break through 3500 points
However, it is more likely that & ldquo; Gently close, slowly twist, wipe and pick again & rdquo; Tangled trend
Guosheng securities strategy Zhang Qiyao team believes that the cross year market is far from over
Mainly based on: the policy will not make sharp turns; The finalization of the second round of US economic stimulus package will promote the recovery of global risk appetite
Due to weak economic recovery and neutral monetary policy, this round of cross-year market has a slower slope and longer time
The level of each sector will also greatly exceed expectations
The market style will further shift to the growth direction
Zhang Xia team of China Merchants Securities strategy believes that the market is expected to continue to maintain the upward trend in January: the first quarter of 2021 will usher in the highest performance growth rate in nearly 10 years, and the first quarter market is expected; In December 2020, the central bank will continue to significantly invest in liquidity; The profit-making effect is obvious, and it is expected that the public fund will usher in a good start to the issuance; Northbound funds will increase their positions in a shares at the beginning of the year, and a shares will usher in a wave of obvious incremental funds
Wang Hanfeng's team of CICC strategy believes that the market may be & ldquo; Year beginning effect Volatility under the influence of multiple factors such as fundamentals and valuation
However, on the whole, the epidemic situation has been repeated locally, but it is controllable as a whole, the policy remains stable, the market valuation is in the historical range, and the average value is high
In the fluctuation, we need to pay attention to the structure
Xun Yugen team of Haitong Securities strategy believes that with the improvement of A-share system and the increase of the proportion of institutional investors, A-share & ldquo; No more than three & rdquo; The historical law of is expected to be broken, and driven by fundamentals and emotions, the market is still in a bull market pattern; In the short and medium term, the spring market may be on the road
Dai Kang team of GF Securities strategy believes that the pro cyclical market is not over
As countries begin to vaccinate one after another, economic repair (especially optional consumption) will continue to be verified
After midstream manufacturing in the third quarter of 2020 and optional consumption in the fourth quarter of 2020, the pro cyclical market will usher in & ldquo; Third wave & rdquo; The second paragraph after the confirmation of consumption profit & ldquo; Retaliatory consumption & rdquo; quotation
Growth direction and increasing attention
Qin Peijing's team of CITIC Securities strategy suggests that switching to cost-effective varieties includes two main lines: one is & ldquo; Procyclical & rdquo; The varieties with upward boom and relative stagnation in the main line include non-ferrous metals, home appliances, tourism, hotels, etc; Second, continue to focus on science and technology, national defense, food, energy and resources; Five Safety & rdquo; High cost performance varieties with clear long-term logic and long-term strategic space, including military industry, semiconductor, consumer electronics, planting chain and seeds
Guotai Junan strategy Chen Xianshun team recommends the allocation of military industry and new energy
The military industry with short-term profit determination, medium-term profit boom and long-term profit growth will welcome Davis's double rise
In addition, we are also optimistic about the global raw material cycle (petrochemical, basic chemical, copper and aluminum) and the direction of new energy technology (new energy vehicles and photovoltaic)
Guosheng securities strategy Zhang Qiyao's team suggested that the layout should follow three main lines: first, the growth direction of military industry, new energy, semiconductor and other sectors; Two, the new energy vehicles with high certainty, light wind power, machinery, medicine, Baijiu and electronics
Third, nonferrous metals, machinery, petroleum, petrochemical and other sectors driven by the resonance recovery of the global economy
Zhang Xia team of China Merchants Securities strategy believes that the sectors with high performance growth rate and relatively undervalued value will be favored
It is suggested to allocate two main lines in the first quarter: first, TMT
Historically, the agitation in spring is often in the growth field; Second, financial securities companies are expected to usher in a round of significant rise
The value of the bank's annual strategic layout is large, and the insurance fundamentals are expected to improve under the low base effect
Wang Hanfeng's team of CICC strategy suggests paying attention to the following four areas: first, the new energy and new energy vehicle industry chain, and continue to pay attention to the high boom areas in the middle and upper reaches of the market on bargain hunting; Second, in the field of science and technology and industrial autonomy, pay attention to the opportunities of bottom-up bargain hunting of science and technology hardware; Third, consumption, including household appliances, automobiles and parts, home furnishings, hotels, other optional consumption, food and beverage, medicine and other sectors; Fourth, in cyclical industries, pay attention to some metal raw materials, * industrial chains, etc
whose subsequent prosperity may continue to improve and whose valuation is not high
Xun Yugen's team of Haitong Securities strategy suggests paying attention to technology and mass consumption in 2021
In terms of science and technology, looking back, there is more room for the development of computer (cloud computing, artificial intelligence), media (games), new energy industry chain and other industries; In terms of consumption, it is expected that the demand for dairy products, catering, supermarkets and other public consumption may increase significantly
Dai Kang's team of GF Securities strategy suggests paying attention to three main lines: first, the boom repair continues and the optional consumption benefiting from demand side management, such as auto parts, household appliances and leisure services; The second is the manufacturing industry whose price rise is coordinated with the start of production capacity and inventory cycle, such as industrial metals, glass and general machinery, as well as emerging industries with upward industrial trend and benefiting from substitution effect, such as new energy; Third, the underestimation and low allocation of large finance confirmed by the boom inflection point, such as banking and insurance
Theme investment focuses on the reform of state-owned enterprises